Never mind the 1st CD…

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Never mind the 1st CD…

...what about the other races contested on those most recently tabulated ballots?

Yeah, the Altschuler/Bishop race is important, but what no one has asked yet, is if somehow approximately 4,000 votes appeared for the GOP Congressional candidate by week's end, what other races might be impacted?

A check of the Board of Elections tote board shows that the State-wide and County-wide races wouldn't be effected.

Nor would the State Senate contests, but many of the New York State Assembly races were relatively tight, especially in the 1st AD where Republican Daniel Losquadro turned out Democratic incumbent Marc Alessi by 40 votes out of 42,028 cast on the new tabulators.

While Fred Thiele maintained his seat in the 2nd AD with a 6,008 vote win over Richard Blumenthal, the 3rd AD might still be in play as Dean Murray bested Robert Calarco by less than 2,000 votes out of 29,626 cast.

Although 27East is reporting that a Republican Board of Elections official is attributing the large post-election swing in the 1st CD to "human error," confidence in the new vote tabulation machines will remain low until a more definitive answer has been established.

Comments

1. Michael Jacobs said...

A person close to the Bishop campaign told me that human error most likely is the issue in the 3900 vote swing. It seems that the polling places call in their votes to a central office and that errors or mis-communication may have occurred during that "un-official" count. The memory cards showed different numbers giving Altschuler the lead. There are about 9000 absentee ballots yet to be counted so, depending on the outcome, one side or the other may move for a complete manual recount.

"May?" I think at this point, it's obligatory, and I believe that Bishop's campaign already has.
Dean

2. Jeanne Speir said...

9000 absentee ballots? Who are all these absent people from the 1st CD?

Dean

3. Shorewood said...

In re: "Gawddamned Summer people?" They vote out here, Dean, as they claim their 2nd homes as their primary residence, to avoid paying NYC Income Tax.

I'm well aware of that time-honored tax dodge.
Dean

4. Hank Beck said...

The 1st CD is quite large. It extends west and includes all of Brookhaven as well as a part of Smithtown. There are a total (per the Suffolk County Board of Elections) of 428,617 registered voters in the 1st CD. 9,000+ absentee ballots is not a very large percentage when considering the total registration. However, the percentage increases a bit when you consider that only 181,043 (42.24%) actually went to the polls on November 2nd. That number does not include the absentee ballots. Military absentee ballots have until the 30th of November to be received by the BOE in order to be counted.

Southampton Town has 39,025 registered voters or just 9.1% of the total in the 1st CD. It's just not enough tail to wag the dog.

So then you're ceding the election to the carpetbagger?
Dean

5. Hank Beck said...

No. Not at all, though I do like your characterization of Mr. Altschuler. The final result will be whatever it is. It's just that Tim Bishop's home territory of Southampton does not swing enough weight to move the scale very far. Southampton Town has 42 election districts while Brookhaven has 475.

I'm guessing that you've been to the BOE during one of these re-count/re-canvassing events and know that it is a heaven-like atmosphere for lawyers and is about as exciting as proverbially watching paint dry for everyone else. No hanging chads here but many long hours of tedium over just about everything else.

Of course you'd like the Altschuler characterization, Hank... you're the only guy I've ever seen make three left-hand turns to avoid making a single right-hand one.

No, I avoid the Board of Election headquarters at every opportunity... it is a bigger repository of political hacks than even OTB!

BTW: that "paint dry" comment originated in a little appreciated 1975 Arthur Penn movie when Gene Hackman describes the experience of watching a film by Eric Rohmer.
Dean

6. EastEnd68 said...

Bishop support also comes from East Hampton Town, Southold Town, and Riverhead Town. Do not concede.

No one is going to concede anything in a race like this until the last appeal is denied.

Ye Gawds and dangling chads, imagine if the the Altschuler/Bishop contest came down to something like "Swing Vote" where the balance of power in the House of Representatives came down to who prevailed in the 1st CD?
Dean

7. EastEnd68 said...

Actually the race has no effect in the House for the next two years – Republicans have an overwhelming majority this time.

Thank you for this faint glimpse into the obvious for anyone who somehow missed the "imagine if" part.
Dean

8. John (not Jack) Laadt said...

I would like to believe that a good chunk of those absentees ballots come from college students like myself, though that's probably wishful thinking. Between college kids, the immobile elderly (nursing homes, etc.), and people that were away, 9,000 doesn't seem too high of a number. I hope they'll give Bishop a lead, not so much because of party affiliation at this point, but because I’d much rather be represented by a local than an opportunist. But that's just my opinion.

And thank you for expressing it so directly.
Dean

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